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Westminster voting intention

Poll-of-polls · 12 months

Voting intention12M · 14d half-life EWMA

What else was happening

4 marks
  1. 19 JulBurnham formally enters Downing Street pledging circuit-breaker shift from Starmer era
  2. 2 AugBev Craig elected Greater Manchester mayor, beating Reform UK in second round
  3. 15 AugFarage wins Clacton seat back but financial probe resumes immediately
  4. 29 AugCleverly quits shadow cabinet to seek Conservative London mayoral nomination

The biggest story of each marked day, by how many independent outlets ran it · a mark shows when a story was running, not that it moved the numbers · averages are 14-day-half-life EWMAs of fieldwork that largely predates the story beside them.

Leader approval

Net approval12M · positive − negative

Marks are the same stories as the key above.

Recent polls

FieldworkPollsterClientnLABCONRUKLDGRNSNPPCRB
28 AugOpiniumThe Observer2,003271925101231—
28 AugSurvation—2,149271924910213
26 AugFind Out Now—2,295222025111331—
24 AugDeltapoll—2,0223020278831—
24 AugYouGovThe Times/Sky News2,3802220231313313
23 AugMore in Common—3,1402722231093—4
19 AugFind Out Now—2,287231823111431—
18 AugSurvation—2,0132618261010312
17 AugDeltapoll—2,0172921278821—
17 AugMore in Common—2,05527222511931—
17 AugYouGovThe Times/Sky News2,4412219241213314
14 AugOpiniumThe Observer2,050271825101131—
13 AugSurvation—2,004251926119322
12 AugTrajectory Partnership—1,46228202211931—
12 AugFind Out Now—2,417222024111431—
11 AugJL Partners—2,017282125109———
11 AugJL PartnersBloomberg News2,017272125109———
10 AugFind Out NowThe National1,02018101710—29——
10 AugMore in Common—2,12827212512931—
10 AugFreshwater StrategyCity AM1,2482323269103——

Regional polling

Individual sub-national polls, newest first — not a poll-of-polls. Regions are polled far too rarely to average: the national figure above blends five pollsters over a month, while most of these regions get a handful of polls a year. Read each row as one pollster on one date, and mind the gap between that date and today.

Scotland

36 polls
FieldworkPollsternSNPLABRUKLDCON
4–10 Aug 2026Find Out Now · The National1,0202918171010
27–29 May 2026Norstat · Sunday Times1,002341617910
27–30 Apr 2026Norstat · Sunday Times1,0022919181014
14–21 Apr 2026Survation · Ballot Box Scotland1,008311921810
30 Mar–1 Apr 2026Norstat · Sunday Times1,0063218161011
26–31 Mar 2026Ipsos · STV News1,030371518811

showing the 6 most recent of 36

Wales

8 polls · nothing newer than 5 months
FieldworkPollsternPCRUKGRNCONLABLD
12–19 Mar 2026YouGov · ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University1,08229241412125
5–12 Jan 2026YouGov · Barn Cymru1,20529251212136
28 Nov–10 Dec 2025YouGov · Cardiff University2,50019301413158
4–10 Sept 2025YouGov · Barn Cymru1,2202329711189
23–30 Apr 2025YouGov · Barn Cymru1,2482424713209
10 Mar–3 Apr 2025Survation8441825615296

showing the 6 most recent of 8

London

8 polls
FieldworkPollsternLABCONGRNRUKLD
30 Jun–8 Jul 2026Savanta · QMUL1,0383119181610
17–23 Dec 2025Savanta · QMUL1,0063017172113
15–21 Dec 2025Savanta · QMUL1,0063117181913
30 Oct–7 Nov 2025Savanta · Centre for London1,2423220102311
29 Apr–21 May 2025Savanta · QMUL1,0033221131513
4–8 May 2025Find Out Now · Alex Wilson1,1023017151916

showing the 6 most recent of 8

Greater Manchester

2 polls · nothing newer than 7 months
FieldworkPollsternRUKLABGRNLDCON
23–24 Jan 2026Find Out Now1,003362418109
4 Jul 20242024 general electionresult—17438916

Northern England and the Midlands

2 polls · nothing newer than 16 months
FieldworkPollsternRUKLABCONLDGRN
11–13 Apr 2025Survation · Friderichs Advisory Partners2,032302722109
4 Jul 20242024 general electionresult—18402487

100 most rural constituencies

2 polls · nothing newer than 21 months
FieldworkPollsternCONLABRUKLDGRN
14–21 Nov 2024Survation · Country Land and Business Association1,007342121187
4 Jul 20242024 general election (Survation)result—342416196

Rows marked result are election results, not polls — kept because a region with one poll needs something to read it against · sub-national polls never enter the national poll-of-polls · poll list via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA).

Methodology

For each party we take an exponentially-weighted moving average over poll fieldwork midpoints with a 14-day half-life, using each pollster's most recent poll in the trailing 30-day window and requiring at least five polls. Poll list via Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); figures are percentages of Westminster voting intention.